Don’t Try To Predict Exchange Rate

Yes, at least that’s what I found based on historical data regression.

Previously, I red an article that gives an indication of Rupiah (IDR) strengthens against US Dollar (USD). On the article, Miranda Goeltom (Temporary Bank Indonesia’s Governor) said that IDR will appreciate against USD due to stable monetary indicators. The quick count result of Presidential Election also gives positive stimuli to the exchange rate. In addition she also mentioned that lower inflation and future reduction of BI Rate will give the positive effect.

So, based on that statement, I try to do some test.